Welcome to SSP Carbonator
Explore how different SSP pathways change global temperature, greenhouse gases and ocean chemistry, using a simplified two-layer energy-balance model coupled to a simple carbon-cycle and methane lifetime model. Choose a scenario on the left (or below) to begin.
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Select a scenario to begin. Use Advanced mode to edit parameters or input curves.
Baseline is 1850 (forcing and temperature anomalies). This tool is deterministic and intended for classroom exploration.
Our thanks to:
View: 1850 – 2100
Controls
Toggle inputs on/off, then run the model.
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Review inputs below, then click Run scenario to view outputs.
CO₂ Emissions
Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (GtC per year).
Enable
ON
EDITED
CH₄ Emissions
Anthropogenic emissions of methane (Tg CH₄ per year).
Enable
ON
EDITED
Aerosol Emissions
Human aerosol (SO₂) emissions. The cooling effect is proportional to the emission rate — aerosols wash out of the air within days.
Enable
ON
EDITED
Ozone Precursor Emissions
Pollution that forms ozone near the ground (NOx, CO and other gases from traffic and industry). The warming effect is proportional to the emission rate. Index units, roughly Tg per year.
Enable
ON
EDITED
N₂O Emissions
Nitrous oxide, mostly from farming and fertilisers (Tg N₂O per year). A strong greenhouse gas that stays in the air for about 120 years.
Enable
ON
EDITED
Synthetic Gas Emissions
Industrial gases like CFCs and HFCs, treated as one equivalent gas (kt CFC-12-equivalent per year, ~100-year lifetime). Look for the peak around 1990 — that is the Montreal Protocol working.
Enable
ON
EDITED
Volcanic Aerosol Injection
Volcanic aerosol injected into the stratosphere (optical depth per year). It reflects sunlight and decays away with a ~1.2-year lifetime.
Enable
ON
EDITED
Solar ERF
Natural forcing from solar variability (W m⁻²).
Enable
ON
EDITED
Albedo
Planetary reflectivity (0 = absorbs all sunlight, 1 = reflects everything). The baseline is 0.31; making the planet brighter reflects more sunlight and cools it (−3.4 W/m² per +0.01).
Enable
ON
EDITED
Natural Variability
Random year-to-year variability, like the real climate has. Two sources: the ocean stirring heat between its surface and depths (ENSO-like), and random changes in cloudiness and sunshine (also visible as wiggles on the Albedo input).
Ocean mixing
OFF
Clouds & sun
OFF
Seed: 1
Tip: try disabling aerosols to see the “unmasking” effect; or disable CH₄ to see its fast impact on forcing.
Inputs:
Outputs:
CO₂ emissions
CH₄ emissions
Aerosol emissions
Ozone precursors
N₂O emissions
Synthetic gases
Volcanic injection
Solar ERF
Albedo
Temperature
Global-mean surface temperature change (relative to 1850–1900), plus deep-ocean temperature in the two-layer model.
Compare with observations / CMIP6
Observations (annual)
CMIP6 (annual, global mean)
All comparison series are shown as temperature anomalies relative to 1850–1900. (GISTEMP is shifted to match HadCRUT5 over 1880–1900.)
Local projections
Local change = the global warming from your run × a map pattern from real climate models. Click the map to pick a location.
Location (click on map or type)
Sea level rise
Semi-empirical sea level model with thermal expansion + land-ice contributions (relative to 1850).
Atmospheric concentrations
CO₂ and CH₄ are modelled directly. N₂O and other WMGHG are shown as “implied” concentrations from the simplified forcing fits (teaching display).
Carbon stocks
Carbon reservoirs (GtC) in the simple carbon-cycle model.
Ocean pH
Surface-ocean pH estimated from upper-ocean carbonate chemistry in the carbon-cycle module.
Radiative forcing components
Effective radiative forcing (W m⁻²) relative to 1850. CO₂/CH₄ are computed from modelled concentrations; other components are scenario inputs.
Model structure follows Sherwood et al. (2022) appendix for the energy-balance + carbon-cycle components. Sea-level component is a simple temperature-based teaching approximation.
Compare runs
Overlay several model runs on one chart. Add the run you have on screen (run a scenario, then Add current run — or use Add to compare in the display controls), and/or load files saved earlier with Export outputs CSV. Runs stay here for this browser session.
Choose variables in the Display controls panel (bottom right).
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No runs yet. Run a scenario and click Add current run, or load saved outputs files.